Election Prediction for this Week – or Why Stephen Harper so badly wants an election EDITORIAL

Election Prediction for this Week – or Why Stephen Harper so badly wants an election EDITORIAL

Good morning everyone.  Nobody wants an election.   That’s the buzz phrase that comes out of a lot of politician’s mouths and in print.   Reality is though that the majority of politicians do want a Federal election.

Don’t let anyone in the Harper Government fool you.    Mr. Harper wants a majority.  He’s tired of not being able to do almost whatever he wants to whomever he wishes.  And he knows that the recession could very well get a lot worse come this fall and winter before it gets better; ie jobs get created.  Also the rate of money his government has spent is going to splash back eventually; probably sooner rather than later.

He also hates sharing the spotlight and giving airtime to the other leaders; especially Mr Layton and Mr Duceppe who benefit more from a minority government.

Look at the new attack ads (blech) he just released.  Those are not the ads of someone that wants to keep his minority government afloat.

Mr Ignatieff and the Liberals want an election too.    I think they’d rather wait a bit longer as they are collecting up a wad of cash after seeing their membership list double since Mr. Ignatieff took over as leader.   He needs time to build his machine, but at the rate that the Harper Government is burning money to keep afloat, I think he wants a country that can be saved, and not be in the position that the Obama Government was in when it took office.

As for Mr. Layton, he essentially would prefer Mr. Harper exactly where he is.    The NDP profile better against the Conservatives than the Liberals.   The Grits and the NDP share too many values even if not to the same degree, and it’s harder to campaign against them than the Conservatives.   His party strategy now though seems to be to attack the Liberals and Mr Ignatieff.     At the local Labour day march last week here in Cornwall the buttons were worn, and they weren’t attacking Mr. Harper.

Most Conservative voters would not switch to NDP as fast as Liberal.   Most of the growth that he has gained for his party has come at the cost of the Liberal Party.   The soft fluid center vote tends to waver to the Liberals or Conservatives depending on the issues and timing.

As for Mr. Duceppe.   He gets to enjoy and laugh at the whole process.   The Bloc gets to benefit from the machinations of the other party’s fighting with each other.  He gets to look stately and regal to the Quebec voting population as he has no desire to actually govern Canada; just get what he can for Quebec which smart Quebec voters have been supporting as they don’t see the Libs or Conservatives getting a majority.

L I N K And then there’s this story I just linked to that lists the 74 MPs (including our own MP Guy Lauzon) who get their pensions if the government last’s until July 2010 or they get re-elected

Which brings me to my prediction for this week.

I think that Mr Harper is going to give the NDP enough meat to allow them to support his government for one last kick at the can, but not enough to keep him in power much longer.  It’s mostly a shot at Mr Ignatieff as Mr Harper’s team I’m sure are hoping that Mr. Layton can keep the Liberal’s down enough to give them their shot at a Majority.

What do you think Cornwall?  Is the call going to come this week?

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Stan
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No the call won’t come this week. It will come during the vote of Non-Confidence in the Budget that will be presented in March 2010. It will be initiated by someone salivating with the thought of becoming PM. That someone is Michael Ignatieff. Upon his defeat, he will return to the U.S. and continue teaching at Harvard University.