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ROGER SAUVÉ – Life Trends – Facts And Figures That Matter to You – Life is changing for both men and women

Bob Dylan released “The Times They are a-Changin” in 1964. He was right at the time. Some four decades later, the change continues.

My new report, Canadian Gender Realities 2010, compares men and women across most aspects of life. Taken as a whole, the trends paint a picture of rapid change over the last several decades. What men, but especially women, are doing today is a far cry from the situation a generation ago.

There has been a major re-definition of the “roles” of men and women. The stereotype of men in the paid work force with women at home throughout the child-raising years, or even over a lifetime, is largely a thing of the past. The vast majority of women are now in the paid work force while fewer men are. Dual-incomes are now the norm.

Women are becoming the major wage earner in more and more couple families. In spite of this, it is still women who do the majority of the juggling between family care and paid work.

Women have clearly taken much more control of their own lives. This is especially so for those below the age of 35 but it is also very apparent among older age groups. This is evident relative to increasing levels of education, greater participation in the job market, higher earnings and in delaying childbirth. Women continue to have stronger social support systems and friends than do men. Women experience the impact of change more than men do.

Men do better financially than do women, but the gap is closing slowly. Men spend more hours at paid work and earn more money per hour doing it. Young men live more dangerous lives, binge more and are more likely to suffer the negative consequences as seen in mortality statistics. Sports are more important to men. Based on government surveys, men are just a bit happier and are less stressed. Men place significantly less importance on religion than do women.

There is clearly more equality than in the past. The areas of study and occupations reveal shifts away from traditional expectations … for both. More women are doing more of what men used to do and more men are doing more of what women used to do.

A detailed table of contents covering the 63 trends in the full report, Canadian Gender Realities 2010, is available on my website below.

Roger Sauvé is President of People Patterns Consulting (www.peoplepatternsconsulting.com). Roger is an economist and demographer and lives in Summerstown Ontario.

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ROGER SAUVÉ – Life Trends – Facts And Figures That Matter to You – For Canada’s youth … this is a depression

This is one depressing story but it must be told.

We like to talk about how Canada’s youth are our future. If we truly believe this, it sure doesn’t show up in the job numbers.

Youth, the group 15-24 years of age, represent only 15% of Canada’s total population. Based on this number, we might expect youth to share in the bad times in line with their share of the total population. They don’t. They are suffering much, much, more.

Last year, Canada lost about 277,000 jobs across all age groups. This was clearly a recession under by any measure.

The number of jobs lost by those aged 15-24 was 177,000 jobs or almost two-thirds of the total jobs decline. This is a decline of 6.8% in the number of jobs among youth compared to a loss of “only” 0.7% among everyone else. In percentage terms, the job decline among youth was almost 10 times more severe than among the rest of the work force. This is an unfair burden on young people. It is awful.

For youth, the last year has not been a recession … it has been a depression. The latest readings for February 2010 reveal that jobs for youth are still going down from a year ago and unemployment is still going up.

Students have been hit especially hard. In July of last year, about 21% of students who were planning to return to school and who wanted to work could not find a job. This is the highest rate of unemployment in three decades for this group. The percentage with jobs in July was the lowest in three decades. The percentage holding down jobs during the school year also dropped sharply. They are not lazy … the jobs are just not there.

Each year over the last decade, I have prepared a Canada Job Trends Update report on how youth and everyone else are doing in the labour force in Canada and in each province. I have developed a ranking model for youth doing using 10 labour market indicators. (Go to my website below for more information.)

For youth, there has been a major shift between the provinces. In 2000, Ontario was to best place, job wise, to be for youth. For the next eight years, Alberta was the best place to be and in 2009 Saskatchewan became number one.

What about Ontario? Ontario was in ninth spot in 2009 and has never ranked better than seventh in the last five years. The previous year, Ontario actually fell to last spot behind Newfoundland, which usually claims the last spot.

British Columbia was in eight spot in 2009 and has also loss ground over the last five years. Quebec, the second largest province usually ranks someplace in the middle.

Youth rebel. They want to change things. They often want to shock us older types. I did a lot of the same when I was their age. Didn’t you? It was and is a time to discover who we are.

However youth might act, most are serious about getting an education, making their own money and planning for the future.

As a sometime, part-time, college instructor I have always been impressed by young people. They ask good questions that we should all be asking rather than just complaining. They must be asking a lot of questions about current economic questions.

Politicians should be providing more of the answers or at least admitting the realities and trying to provide additional support for the youth in this difficult economic climate. If youth are indeed our future, lets make they also have one.

Roger Sauvé is President of People Patterns Consulting. Roger is an economist and demographer and lives in Summerstown.

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ROGER SAUVÉ – Life Trends – Facts And Figures That Matter To You – Wedding Bells? Less than half of single people will marry before the age of 50

Spring is almost here … and love and weddings are not far behind.

Have you found that special someone out there that you would like to spend the rest of your life with … and the feeling is mutual?

And so what are the odds that you will actually get legally married before you turn 50? Back in 1981, a single person had a 65% chance of getting married before the age of 50 and it was exactly the same for both men and women. According to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada, single women now have a 46% chance of getting married and single men have a 44% chance of getting married before the age of 50.

And so why are the odds so low? More and more of the younger generation are now choosing to live together in common-law relationships. Among those aged 25-29, about one-quarter are now living common-law and the trend is accelerating. Even so, at this age, another one-quarter are already legally married.

One survey, by sociologist Reginald Bibby, found that the top five characteristics that we look for in a partner are honesty, kindness, respect, compatibility and humour. These all sound like pretty good choices to me. Most of us end up in some kind of relationship.

July and August (about 40% of all weddings occur in those months) are the three prime months for weddings with June and September not far behind. About 70% of marriages take place on a Saturday.

Currently, about two-thirds of marriages are between first-time brides and first-time grooms, 12% are between previously divorced brides and grooms, 1% are between widows and widowers with the rest being between various combinations of brides and grooms.

The typical first marriage now has a groom aged 30.5 years and a bride aged 28.5 years. For both brides and grooms, the average age is up by more than five years compared to three decades ago. For same-sex couples, the average age is 41 for males and 40 for females.

The average age of marriage for divorced grooms is 46.1 years and 42.9 years for divorced brides. These ages rise to 63.1 years for widowers and 56.9 for widows. The age difference between grooms and brides rises from exactly two years for first-timers, to 3.2 years for previously divorced and to 6.5 years for widowed persons. It would be interesting to get your comments on this trend.

The average wedding in Canada now costs about $25,000 but the range can run from a few hundred dollars to millions of dollars. Possible costs include wedding rings, photographers, a chapel, an officiant (that is the person that legally asks you to say yes or no), an organist, a reception, a rehearsal dinner, food, clothes, flowers, and perhaps even a horse drawn carriage. And yes, the honeymoon.

This is not to discourage you, but, according to Statistics Canada, about 38% of those who marry this year will have divorced before their 30^th wedding anniversary. The good news is that 62% will still be together. The top five reasons for divorce are different values and interests, physical and mental abuse, alcohol and drugs, infidelity and career-related conflicts. Pick wisely.

In closing, I would like to finish with the lyrics from my favourite singer Willie Nelson,

I’m falling in love again

I never thought I would again

I never thought I could again

Enjoy your relationships.

Roger Sauvé is President of People Patterns Consulting (www.peoplepatternsconsulting.com). Roger is an economist and demographer and lives in Summerstown.

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ROGER SAUVÉ – Life Trends – Facts And Figures That Matter To You – Income, savings and debt … and pets

For the last 11 years, I have prepared a rather unique report on the Current State of Canadian Family Finances. I do this on a contract basis for the Vanier Institute of the Family based in Ottawa. The lastest report was released on February 16.

The report was a media hit and was covered by all the major TV networks, many radio stations and 30 to 40 newspapers across Canada plus the Cornwall Free News. See the link at the bottom of this column to access the full report. It is about you.

The biggest challenge in putting these reports together is that no two households are the same … some have lots of money and some have not, some have lots of debt and some do not, some have a lot of savings and assets and others do not and some are young and some not so young and many other combinations. You know where you stand.

As such, these reports can only capture some of the underlying trends relative to family budgets. These trends give us indications as to where we are going as a nation.

One of the most significant, enduring and disturbing trends seems to be our growing dependency on debt, especially credit card debt and lines of credit. Total debt, including mortgages, is now up to an average $96,100 per household. This average includes those that have debt and those that don’t. This debt load is now equal to 145% of average household incomes after income taxes. It was only 91% in 1990 and 111% in 2000. This is not good news. If you only include households that have debt, the debt load is now closer to $240,000 for those households.

According to the Bank of Canada, about 6% of Canadian households or about 825,000 households now spend more than 40% of their gross incomes just to pay interest on debt plus paying down some of the debt load. A Bank of Canada model assumes that one in four of these households will eventually default. The number with this high debt ratio could climb to 1.3 million or more by the end of next year. This is not good news.

Another startling trend discussed the report is that the value of the average home is now equal to five times the average household income and incomes taxes … it was only 3.2 times average incomes a decade ago. This is a clear sign of a housing bubble and bubbles do burst.

There are always a few cute surprises in these reports. Can you answer this question? What was the fastest growing consumer expenditure item over the last decade? The biggest increase was for the purchase of pet care services and not too far behind was the purchase of pets and supplies. Did you guess correctly? I think this is surprising, but I am not a pet owner. Half of all households now have a pet. Ask a friend the same question and see the response you get.

On the not so cute side, big spending increases also occurred in out of pocket medical and health services.

The largest decline in expenditures over the last decade was on child care in the home. The trend to small families and the growing number of dual income households explains much of this trend. More of the child care is now provided outside the home.

For the full report go to http://www.vifamily.ca/about/about.html and click on the title inside the box.

Roger Sauvé is President of People Patterns Consulting (www.peoplepatternsconsulting.com). Roger is an economist and demographer and lives in Summerstown.

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We’re very lucky to have as talented a person part of our family at The Cornwall Free News as Roger Sauvé of People Patterns Consulting.

Roger, through the Vanier Institute for the Family releases a yearly report which went live recently. LINK

“The numbers show that most families haven’t felt much relief from the recovery that is technically underway in the economy, says the report from the Vanier Institute of the Family.

“No one should conclude that recession worries are over in the homes across Canada,” says the report, written for the institute by Roger Sauve of People Patterns Consulting.

“From a household perspective, there will continue to be high unemployment for sometime, income growth will remain weak, and there is an urgent underlying need for many families to repair and/or strengthen their household balance sheets,” it says.

“For far too many, there is too little income, too much spending, too little saving and too much debt.”

The report notes that the number of Canadians working peaked in October 2008. From then until the economy hit bottom last July, 410,000 jobs disappeared – and few of those jobs have been recovered.

“The average debt per household hit $96,100 in the third quarter 2009 or $87,200 if only consumer debt and mortgage debt are included,” it says. “Both are at new record highs. Total debt per household advanced 5.7%.”

Roger was very busy today giving out interviews to media sources across Canada.   LINK – Hopefully he’ll share a bit more about his fascinating work in his next piece for us?

Sauve, along with other family experts like Clarence Lochhead, executive director of the Vanier Institute for the Family, say parents are taking on too much debt while at the same time they are raising the first generation of kids who are spending money without actually seeing it.

“Kids are getting bank cards and credit cards as early as 16, and they’re spending their parents’ money without even seeing it. There is no actually dollars, or paper money, being handed over,” says Lochhead.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FAMILY FINANCES REPORT – February 16,  2010

Ø      The recession came and a recovery now seems to be underway – The global economy was hit hard. Canada was hit hard. Canadian households were hit hard. It seems that the economy is now in a slow recovery. Even so, many challenges remain.

Ø      Households faced difficult recession realities – Employment fell sharply, aggregate wages shrank, net worth dipped, households held back and saving has come back in dramatic style. Bankruptcies and arrears climbed.

Ø      Average debt loads climbed to $96,100 in 2009 – In contrast to past recessions, households continued to borrow more this time. The debt to income ratio jumped to a new high of 145%. Under one scenario, some 1.3 million households could have a vulnerable or dangerously high debt service load by the end of 2011.

Ø      Housing prices likely in a bubble – House prices in October-November 2009 increased to about $340,000, equal to 5 times the average after tax incomes of Canadian households. The long-term average is 3.7 times. Higher interest rates, possible changes in mortgage terms, more new listings and the realization that current prices are unsustainable may cause the bubble to burst.

Ø      The 2000s was a decade of debt while the 1990s was a decade of sagging savings – In the 2000s, asset growth was less than half the pace of the 1990s while the growth in debt was twice as rapid. The opposing trends for assets versus debt brought about a much reduced growth in wealth in the 2000s. The 1990s were a decade of sagging savings.

Ø      Poverty on the rise and the rich get a growing piece of the pie – Poverty levels jumped during each of the last two recessions and are likely doing so now. Only the richest fifth of families increased their share of total family incomes … the rest got less over the last two decades.

Ø      Special report on household spending in the 2000s decade – Out of pocket medical expenditures far outpaced all other major group of expenditures. At the detailed level, pet care grew the fastest and child care expenses at home declined the most. The recession contributed to a 6% dip in personal income tax payments.

Click his banner below to find out more about Roger or to contact him for more information.

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ROGER SAUVÉ – Life Trends – Facts And Figures That Matter To You – How are you doing, eh? Pretty good.

This is not a trick question. Statistics Canada actually has the answer. All results are based on what we say and are not based on what our doctors claim, our special friend or spouse says or what the next door neighbours thinks.

The results are based on a 2008 survey of residents of SD&G and Prescott-Russell. Results are also available for all regions of the country.

About 57% of us say that our physical health is “very good or excellent”. This ranges from a high of 70% for those aged 12-19 years of age to 66% for those a mid-life (35-44) to only 42% among those aged 65 and up. There is very little difference between the sexes. Only 15% of us say our health is fair or poor but this rises to one in four for those aged 45 and over.

We rate our mental health much higher than we do our physical health. About 72% of us say our mental health is “very good or excellent” and only 5% rate our mental health as fair or poor. The peak in self-perceived mental health is at mid-life (35-44) when almost 80% think our mental health is very good or excellent. The other high points are at ages 12-19 and 65 and over when about 75% of us give ourselves top rankings. Again, there is not much difference between men and women.

Are you stressed out? About one quarter of us say we have “quite a bit” of life stress. For this question, women are almost twice as likely to feel stressed out than men. The biggest difference in stress levels is at the age of 35-44 when only one out of every five men say they have “quite a bit of stress” while half of women say so. This a time when families have small children or teenagers to care for, meals to prepare, activities to participate or support and the highest likelihood of being a dual-income family. This stressful period stresses women much more than men. Does this suggest that men are not taking up their fair share of the load? What do you think?

The best part of the story follows. Regardless of how we feel about our physical and mental health, about 94% of us (that is most of us) feel “satisfied or very satisfied” with life and there is little difference between men and women. The most satisfied are those aged 12-19 when 97% feel satisfied and the least satisfied are those age 34-44 when “only” 90% are satisfied. Is it a coincidence that the least satisfied (but still very high) are the ones that are probably the most concerned about the most satisfied? Raising kids may be stressful but it is satisfying.

I do like the result that says that 94% of adults aged 65 and over are satisfied with life. At least on this measure, I am in the majority.

Life is to be lived and enjoyed. If you are in the small whining minority … get a life and live. I believe that you only go through once. Of course, some people have good reasons to complain due to their health problems and occasional changing life circumstances.

Roger Sauvé is President of People Patterns Consulting . Roger is an economist and demographer and lives in Summerstown.

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ROGER SAUVÉ – Life Trends – Facts And Figures That Matter To You – Region has more smokers than almost anywhere in Ontario

Smoking kills! That is the message that Canadians have been hearing for at least two decades. Are you listening? Are you doing anything about it?

The incidence of smoking in this region is not good. Compared to the rest of Ontario … it is awful.

Detailed health statistics are available from Statistics Canada for the region covered by the Eastern Ontario Health Unit (EOHU) and 35 other health units across Ontario. The EOHU comprises SD&G plus Prescott-Russell. About 190,000 people in the region.

According to the latest 2008 readings, 24% of all residents aged 12 and over in the EOHU smoke on a daily basis. Only four of the 36 health units in Ontario have a higher percentage of smokers than in the EOHU.  The rate of smoking varies very little between males and females. “Only” 16% of all Ontario residents aged 12 and over smoke on a daily.

One-third of persons in the EOHU aged 20-34 and 35-44 smoke on a daily basis, one-quarter of those aged 45-64 smoke on a daily basis while a much smaller 14% of those aged 65 and over smoke.

The EOHU population has a high percentage of smokers, but even worse, it has the highest percentage (13%) of residents among all the 36 health units who are exposed to second hand smoke in the home. This is partly due to the fact that local residents are also the most reluctant among all the health units to tell people to butt out in the home.

The EOHU website clearly warns about the dangers of smoking, “Smoking causes cancer, heart disease, and pulmonary disease while also putting you at extra risk for colds and the flu, ulcers, osteoporosis and many other illnesses. Your smoking doesn’t just affect you.  Everyone around you breathes your second-hand smoke, which puts them at risk for cancer and other diseases.” The message could not be clearer.

Are these warnings just meant to scare you or do they represent reality? I looked at the numbers. Residents of the EOHU region are 30% more likely to die of lung cancer and 20% more likely to die of diseases of the heart than the Ontario average. In addition, we are 36% more likely to have asthma than the Ontario average. Not all of this can be blamed on smoking, but a lot of it can.

You can help reduce these diseases. Quit smoking. Don’t let others inhale your smoke. And do let people know that they are not allowed to smoke inside your home. I am not preaching … I am just saying the obvious.

Of course, quitting smoking isn’t easy. Many have tried and failed. But more have tried and succeeded. I know someone who tried to quit smoking four times before succeeding. Your own life, and the life of those around you, is worth the effort.  Staff at the EOHU can help you to quit smoking.

Check their website or you can call the EOHU at 613-933-1375 or 1-800- 267-7120 and ask for the Health Line. There are other groups that can help.

More on health in the next column.

Roger Sauvé is President of People Patterns Consulting . Roger is an economist and demographer and lives in Summerstown

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ROGER SAUVÉ – Life Trends – Facts and Figures That Matter To You –

November EI claims up in Cornwall.

Not good news for the Cornwall region, but it could be worse.

This morning, Statistics Canada released the number of people receiving Employment Insurance (EI) benefits. For Canada as a whole, about 800,000 people were collecting, up 52% from November 2008.

The increase for Cornwall was “not as bad” with an increase of “only” 35%. This increase compares to +54% for Hawkesbury, +57% for Ottawa, +59% for Kingston and +304% for Calgary.

Roger Sauvé is President of People Patterns Consulting (www.peoplepatternsconsulting.com). Roger is an economist and demographer and lives in Summerstown.

ROGER SAUVÉ – Life Trends – Facts and Figures That Matter To You –

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