November 27, 2024 – I know, I know. I haven’t been writing much of late. Hockey Crunch will most likely be moving behind a paywall on a different website, but for today I wanted to talk about the ills of this season’s Montreal Canadiens.
GM Kent Hughes has been playing river boat gambler and this season he’s rolled snake eyes for most of his shots. There are reasons teams give up on people. It’s not the old days of one guy making a bad decision. There’s too much at stakes for franchises.
Montreal has picked up players at bargain rates because of bad contracts or clear issues. Sometimes you can make this work, especially while rebuilding, but most times it’s a bust.
Meanwhile the team is failing to improve it’s Gilcig Core this season and may actually be going backwards in its development.
When you have a lot of younger players, with more coming up, asset management is key.
For example, I personally would’ve traded Kaiden Guhle rather than lock him up. He’s a fine player, but I’m not sure he’s hit the targets I’d have had for him, and in 2024 cap management is key.
Right now I’d see if I can get value for Kirby Dach. I’m not sure his hockey IQ will be where I would want it and with one more year of a reasonable contract the timing is right to squeeze the sponge.
I’m still not sure why the price was paid for Alex Newhook nor is it apparent what Mr. Hughes is hoping for this player to develop into? Surely it won’t be as a second line player on a cup contending team.
Arber Xhekaj is a rare commodity in the NHL, but this year his development seems to not be happening at the team clearly wants something of him rather than build on his strengths. I think he could be a 4 or 5 D with some muscle that is definitely an asset, but he needs ice time and the right partner on D. I still think they should play him part time on the wing for some extra minutes and grit.
The biggest issue on this team right now, which comes down to coaching, is that it simply isn’t generating enough shots on goal. Even bad shots can lead to goals. Shooting more also attracts penalties which lead to Power play opportunities.
The team clearly is having problems getting and staying into the offensive zone. It tries too many cutesy passes. It has two D men with some offensive chops in Matheson and Hutson, but not much after that.
While this season is starting to look like another tank the team needs to develop. This season should’ve been a time to learn how to win, which is really important for a potential cup contender down the line. Martin St. Louis may be a great guy, and may have helped a few players, but the team’s consistently bad performance may mean the end of his tenure behind the bench.
Ultimately a coach should always be getting more value out of his roster than it has. Good coaching gets the best out of its roster. Can that be said about this season, St. Louis third behind the bench?
While not an easy position to be in, especially without reclamation project Patrik Laine in the line up yet, the team has underperformed overall. While St. Louis may take the hit, the hand given to him to work with by Hughes this season hasn’t helped.
Moving forward if there is no uptick by the return of Laine shortly it’s time to focus on who stays, and who goes with the emphasis on asset management and making sure this team makes a play off run for next season.
The good – glad to see Brendan “Stumpy” Gallagher have a strong comeback season so far. He’s putting up the points from a depth position and some PP time.
Lane Hutson is having a good rookie season, but he needs to shoot more and he needs to get more points from who he passes to. A stronger forward corp would rack up more points for him.
Slafkovsky simply needs to shoot more. He’s got some points. He’s laying on the body, but he needs to deliver the goals, especially after signing his new contract. His cup is still half full.
Josh Anderson is having a good season despite his reduced role. I’m surprised a contending team isn’t trying to steal him from the Habs with salary retained. He’s big, fast, and hits hard. He also doesn’t appear to be the type of player that does well in the situation that Montreal is in. He has value still.
Heineman at this point needs a trial on the 2nd line. He needs minutes. The team needs to find his ceiling. He’s had some bright moments this year.
David Savard: I know the team is hoping to land a good draft pick for him at the deadline, and that may be the way to go, but I still like the guy and think he’s valuable with our young D. If the offer is big enough you take it, but he shouldn’t be traded unless the offer is truly of value to the Habs.
I also would like to see Logan Mailloux back up and given some minutes. It’s not a deal breaker, but I think he’s a key to building a stronger corp. I know some don’t value him as much, but I think he has a very high ceiling.
Jamie Gilcig was the first NHL Analytics professional working for the Montreal Canadiens during the 1995/96 season, back when you crunched video with an old Sony VCR with a shuttle. His statistical tools and systems still are unique in today’s NHL.