Here is a list of interesting bits from the news as I am hearing a lot of people over enthusiastic about the economy recovering.
While we do have things a bit better in Canada than in the US or other parts of the world the recession is still there and its impact is most likely not fully felt yet by all of us.
OIL – Here is a story predicing $20 per barrel OIL
“Professor Philip Verleger from the University of Calgary is predicting that oil will drop to $20 per barrel this year. This price was last seen in 2002.
He states that a surplus of 100 million barrels will accumulate by the end of the year.
Concerning the economy he said: “The economic situation is not getting better. Global refinery runs are going to be much lower in the fall. If the recession continues and its a warm winter, its going to be devastating.”
Oil could drop that low, but many investors are betting it’s going the other way. If you feel the economy is really recovering that’s the play; but the indicators are not just in yet. Also, the millions of people who have lost their jobs are still going through their benefits and savings. The real implicatons to the real economy have not fully hit yet.
Without real job growth, and not mimimum wage job growth; there can be no true economic recovery. People need to buy cars, houses, and other big ticket items for the economy to kick start things.
Of course leaner times could lead to growth in items like the TATA NANO . Who wouldn’t want a cheap car that gets reasonable mileage? A Prius is super, but its price tag is more than many people can afford. Also, the new hybrids have battery systems that will require an expensive replacement which a little box car like the Nano will not need. I love Smart Cars. This is a much cheaper version of the Smart Car. The Nano is built in India where the Smart Car is a Mercedes!
Other Stocks Stories:
If you don’t believe Oil is going to drop to$20 per barrel I’d go with Suncor or Shell. Suncor is highly developed in the Oil Sands and Shell was just plain smart during the Oil boom and quietly purchased a lot of smaller oil companies.
In the auto industry I really like Ford. I think they saw this mess coming and started years before as opposed to GM and Chrysler who kept fiddling while their industry burnt to the ground.
Ford is ahead of the curve and has a lot of new models coming out geared for a higher oil priced economy.
COCA COLA If you’re not a huge risk taker this may be the stock for you. Short of buying Canadian Bank stocks not too many people have ever lost money on Coca Cola.
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