Ottawa ON – And another new poll this time from Harris Decima. This will give folks inside the Queensway an opportunity to breathlessly carve up and analyze the numbers. To what end?
New polling numbers certainly fill a lot of space and everyone, including myself, gets a chance to pontificate and speculate on what this means for Harper Inc.
It probably doesn’t mean very much. The numbers are pretty close to the margin of error, although below the 30% mark for the Tories. If falling 2-3 percentage points nationally is all they have done after the tidal wave of negative media publicity surrounding the Jaffer affair, then they haven’t done to badly after all. They should be celebrating that it wasn’t more.
As for the Liberals, their leader can’t be too happy. Iggy was handed an issue on a silver platter, with the media beating the scandal drum and he still couldn’t deliver. Liberals dropped two points as well. The OLO must be collectively banging their heads against the wall.
Jack is up some three points. Good for him as he has put in a pretty solid performance of late. His decision to fight the HST in BC has almost certainly helped his numbers and increased support out there.
The NDP have also picked up in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and Ontario and generally from suburban women.
The two main parties are mired in mudslinging. If throwing the most mud earned parties votes, Iggy should be miles ahead in the polls. Scandals have a way of at least temporarily turning off supporters of both the accused and the accuser. There is a point where voters have seen and heard enough and tune out the antics in Ottawa. The long term question is when and will they come back or will they turn to a third way. Jack must have his fingers crossed watching that one.
It will be interesting to watch for a long term trend over the next few months. Harper Inc only has to survive until somewhere between June 9 and the 23rd. After that the summer break arrives and it becomes notoriously difficult for Opposition parties to get into the news cycle.
The Opposition will try to find ways to do this. They will probably have committees hold hearings in the summer to seek out what little publicity they can get, but will Canadians really care? My guess is that outside of the Queensway, Canadians would rather enjoy a BBQ, than listen to the same old nonsense from our MPs. Harper Inc is safe for now and maybe until September. If at that point his numbers stay down below 30% then he has a real problem on his hands.
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