View From the Hill by Keith Beardsley – Another poll: the sky isn’t falling just yet – Ottawa Ontario – April 27, 2010

Ottawa ON – And another new poll this time from Harris Decima. This will give folks inside the Queensway an opportunity to breathlessly carve up and analyze the numbers. To what end?

New polling numbers certainly fill a lot of space and everyone, including myself, gets a chance to pontificate and speculate on what this means for Harper Inc.

It probably doesn’t mean very much. The numbers are pretty close to the margin of error, although below the 30% mark for the Tories. If falling 2-3 percentage points nationally is all they have done after the tidal wave of negative media publicity surrounding the Jaffer affair, then they haven’t done to badly after all. They should be celebrating that it wasn’t more.

As for the Liberals, their leader can’t be too happy. Iggy was handed an issue on a silver platter, with the media beating the scandal drum and he still couldn’t deliver. Liberals dropped two points as well. The OLO must be collectively banging their heads against the wall.

Jack is up some three points. Good for him as he has put in a pretty solid performance of late. His decision to fight the HST in BC has almost certainly helped his numbers and increased support out there.

The NDP have also picked up in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and Ontario and generally from suburban women.

The two main parties are mired in mudslinging. If throwing the most mud earned parties votes, Iggy should be miles ahead in the polls. Scandals have a way of at least temporarily turning off supporters of both the accused and the accuser. There is a point where voters have seen and heard enough and tune out the antics in Ottawa.  The long term question is when and will they come back or will they turn to a third way. Jack must have his fingers crossed watching that one.

It will be interesting to watch for a long term trend over the next few months. Harper Inc only has to survive until somewhere between June 9 and the 23rd.  After that the summer break arrives and it becomes notoriously difficult for Opposition parties to get into the news cycle.

The Opposition will try to find ways to do this. They will probably have committees hold hearings in the summer to seek out what little publicity they can get, but will Canadians really care? My guess is that outside of the Queensway, Canadians would rather enjoy a BBQ, than listen to the same old nonsense from our MPs. Harper Inc is safe for now and maybe until September. If at that point his numbers stay down below 30% then he has a real problem on his hands.

Keith Beardsley is a senior strategist for True North Public Affairs in Ottawa, as well as a blogger and political analyst. He can often be found running or cycling on his favorite bike trails.

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2 Responses to "View From the Hill by Keith Beardsley – Another poll: the sky isn’t falling just yet – Ottawa Ontario – April 27, 2010"

  1. grimalot   April 27, 2010 at 11:23 AM

    Harper has to go!! But unfortunately, the Liberals will never get into power with that Idiotnieff at the helm. What an idiot for bringing up Abortion again, I have been bitching at the “Neo-Cons” to quit with the mudslinging, and show their strengths, and the same should be said for Ignatieff, instead of slinging mud at the Cons. I at one point thought the guy was smart, however, seeing him act, I’m beginning to wonder if I ever want to send my children to Harvard, or let them have a more social life in another institution instead!

    Getting back to the mudslinging, Ill vote for the party that most talks about their strengths this time instead of voting for any party taking part in blatant mudslinging against other parties. I actually find it to be a bit of a breath of fresh air from Guy’s side as of late, has anyone else noticed that some of his recent propaganda hasn’t contained the mudslinging in it, I have even replied and stated to keep it up. Hopefully he continues to listen if he ever wants to garner my vote for the Conservatives again, not that it will be only just that easy of course!

    Of course, I am quite down with the Green’s and some of their not so regressive policies. But we’ll see.

  2. grimalot   April 27, 2010 at 11:50 AM

    Whoops, spoke a little too soon. Just received the latest bit of propaganda.

    My problem being with this part:
    “Correcting this shortfall in our justice system has been a priority for our government since being elected in 2006. It was part of our campaign platform. We introduced legislation in 2006 but with a minority government and a Liberal majority in the Senate; our efforts were thwarted by the opposition. Now with a plurality of 51-49 in the Senate we feel we can stop this ongoing injustice once and for all. Our Justice Minister, Rob Nicholson re-introduced this piece of legislation in the House of Commons last week. Let’s hope it passes this time.”

    Again, mud slinging at the Liberal dominated senate and putting the blame on them for quashing the last bill. Regardless, what I said was going to happen if they stacked the senate in their favor, is now beginning to happen.

    Harper, made a promise for fixed elections, elected senate, and ultimately, was even talking about abolishing senate. I was advised that for him to be able to abolish senate, that he would have to stack it in his favor to do so. I stated back to the person that advised me of this, just watch, once they have the senate stacked in their favor, there is nothing to stop them from ramming through what they want to do. And now it starts. Especially with Lauzon’s statement that they now have higher numbers in the senate. I knew Harper wouldn’t abolish senate before ramming through legislation of his own. Not that I have a problem with making it that certain criminals, especially those that commit really nasty crimes, to not have the opportunity to serve those sentences in their homes.

    However, this is just the tip of the iceberg on this one. They’ll probably ram through the extremely regressive Bill C-15 again, now that they have the chance to do so. They only have themselves to blame on that bill not passing though, since its Harpers Prorogation of parliament that ultimately dropped that off the table.

    More and more, we are going to lose our freedoms at the hands of these idiots in parliament, and more and more we will be pushed into the police state that has already begun to take hold of our society!

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