September 15, 2022 – It’s rare for an incumbent, especially an established one with the lineage that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has.
Justin is very different than his father. At times it feels like he’s forcing it, being a Trudeau. He’s had a blessed political career that has seen him survive self inflicted scandals that would normally destroy a political career, but here he is, about to face his toughest adversary yet in newly minted Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Justin has benefitted by having very weak opponents. Stephen Harper had worn out his welcome in Ottawa. Andrew Scheer was an utter joke, and Mr. Potato Head clearly wasn’t the right man at any time.
What Justin doesn’t have that his father had was a strong supporting team. Justin’s cabinet seem more put together by a woke marketing team than by merit. Seriously would you rather have Paul Martin or Jean Chretien on your wing or Melanie Joly?
What Mr. Poilievre has achieved is a Trumpian attack machine with clear, even if untrue in many cases, messaging.
Jean Chretien for decades did the attack thing well, but he rarely left himself looking as bad as Pierre has on occasion. Regardless Poilievre has tapped into the Anti Vax, Anti Trudeau crowd. He’s tapped into Western Alienation. He’s tapped into Big Oil in Canada. More importantly he’s tapped into some angry young voters.
This is his election to lose.
The only thing is that Canadian Conservatives over the last few decades have been remarkably adept at losing elections because of blowing themselves up.
The NDP at this stage should fold up their tent. This next election is clearly a vote for the progressive Left or Hard right. Jagmeet Singh has shown himself to be an impotent actor who essentially sold out his party’s supporters and causes to protect about a dozen MP pensions.
This scribbler doesn’t see any quick election calls. Not right now. But when it does come it’ll be the most interesting scrap Canada has seen in a very long time.