View From the Hill by Keith Beardsley – The Bar Has Been Set by Justin Trudeau

Dr. EvilCFN – Conservative and NDP fundraisers must be patting themselves on the back today and thanking Justin Trudeau for their good fortune.

With Trudeau’s pronouncement that he plans on winning a 170 seats and a majority in the next election, the fundraising letters to NDP and Conservative supporters almost write themselves.

Nothing rallies an organization and its supporters more than an opponent announcing in advance that he plans on beating your team. Such an announcement generates new enthusiasm in the ranks to make sure that doesn’t happen and I expect quite a few dollars into the other party’s bank accounts.

Admittedly no one campaigns to come in second or even third like the Liberals did last time. But plenty of voters will think it a little arrogant and over confident for a new leader to announce this early in the game that while he only has 37 MPs now, he will win at least 170 seats and form a majority government after the next election.

Trudeau hasn’t even announced his policy platform yet. Voters haven’t had the opportunity to look at his platform, nor to weigh what they like or dislike about it.

Good looks and a charming smile aren’t the only things that win elections. It reminds me of the ad “Where is the beef?” in this case the policies to back up the charisma and over-blown confidence.  This is the same over-blown confidence that predicted 600 supporters at a rally, when they could barely muster 300 for their leader. That doesn’t say much about their on the ground organization if that is the best they could do.

Trudeau has gone on the record now and set a very high bar for himself to which he will be held by the Conservatives, NDP, media and the voting public. To succeed he has to reach at least 170 seats, anything less amounts to failure.

Believing in your own rhetoric can be a dangerous thing for a politician. Sometimes it is better to be a little more humble in public and not walk into the trap of making announcements that may come back to bite you.

Keith Beardsley is a senior strategist for Cenco Public Affairs  in Ottawa, as well as a blogger and political analyst. He can often be found running or cycling on his favorite bike trails.

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  1. If Trudeau wins then we will surrender our country to the potheads and dopeheads to run……

  2. Stan you are exactly right. Trudeau made my husband laugh when he said that the budget will look after himself. With Trudeau being just a drama teacher in a private school what is he going to do come on stage with a reefer and do an acting job like he did when he made the eulogy at his father’s funeral. Trudeau will put Canada down the shoot into the garbage heap. A country cannot be lead by a pot head nor someone stupid like him. If you take note of any politician when they get into office they look good and young and after a couple of years on the job they become old and gray because the responsibilities are enormous. We can’t have a pot head and an actor as PM.

  3. It isn’t if JT becomes our PM, it’s when. The Harper Cons will be going down in flames possibly sooner rather than later. Some people are speculating that Harper might call an early snap election in order to avoid the impending fallout of the many scandals that are bubbling away right now. Either way, the Reformatories are toast.

  4. Here we go again. Just because Justin Trudeau endorses legalizing pot does NOT mean the country will be run by potheads and dopeheads as suggested by Stan.

    Canada needs a shot in the arm. Since most people wouldn’t trust a NDP government Trudeau will probably become the next PM. But voters are weird, Harpoon Harpo could be returned to power.I certainly hope not.

  5. Don’t worry Hugger. Harper has burned every bridge there is between him and his former political friends. He’s dropping in every popular poll like a stone. He’s toast, and he’s taking his party down with him. Kinda fun to watch, but it would have been better a few years ago.

  6. Furtz, I hope you’re right. He needs to go. He’s f**ked with my pension and benefits. So, he has to go.

  7. It is sadly amusing to hear some of the opinions stated above.

    Thinking similar to this put Greece in it current day position. Is that the direction that the liberal mindset in Canada will take Canadians? Will the majority of Canadians back an individual that lacks true leadership capabilities?

    The simple and likely reality is, yes. The reason, 90% of Canadians either do not have the knowledge and/or inclination to inform themselves prior to casting their vote. In other words their vote is a knee jerk reaction based on campaign hype rather than actual fact and history (the last Ontario provincial election supports that concept rather well).
    Our growing political apathy is about to rise up and bite us all. If nothing else it will be interesting to watch how Canadians react at that juncture.

  8. @ David. You seem to have conveniently forgotten that it was the Liberals under Chretien/Martin who brought down our deficit and actually posted surpluses for the last several years that they held power. They also prevented several questionable bank mergers. If it wasn’t for the economic policies of the Chretien/Martin government, we would have fared much worse during the meltdown in 08.

  9. @Furtz. You conveniently omit that during the Chretien/Martin period the Liberals radically increased taxation to create the illusion of restraint by generating surpluses (over taxation). Again, the surpluses were not achieved through reduced spending or increased productivity. As far as the meltdown I can’t say anything negative. Most in my position saw it coming a long way off and I profited very handsomely as a result. There really is not room or interest here in discussing past government economic policies. The future is now.

  10. @ David. I was no fan of the Chretien/Martin Liberals, but they did leave a nice surplus for Harper to squander on things like the two point cut on the GST etc.

  11. Attention, attention read all about it! Pot Head Trudeau is coming out with a survey about mandatory voting. Read all about it.

    Federal Liberals Float the Idea of Mandatory Voting in Party Survey

    I had to give Pot Head a good look since I thought that was a woman.

  12. @Furtz. Surpluses via over taxation must be returned to the tax payer which is what the Harper government did. The government has a responsibility to the electorate to only collect via taxation what is required to operate and provide that which the tax payer has demanded of themselves.

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