Why Stephen Harper Will Have Another Majority & Where Justin Trudeau Failed by Jamie Gilcig JULY 19, 2015

You can save that headline and throw it my face in October or I may move up in the political pundit rankings here in Canada.

Do I know something some other Canadians don’t?  Am I psychic?  Do I have special powers?

When you mix an education at the foot of a political spell caster like Keith Beardsley and mix that with an understanding of story telling from writing screenplays I think I capture a certain essence when it comes to seeing the trends in politics.

Enough about moi.   Back to our Prime Minister who has been playing a slow burn take down strategy of his real opponent.   He’s sucked the oxygen out of the Timmy’s crowd several times.

Refusing to debate?  Money in the bank.   Does he really need Liz May screeching in his ear doing the heavy lifting for Justin?

All the ink went to Harper with no negative repercussions.

Bill C-51?  Harper missed that one.  Actually the only Federal leader to sign on that day was…. Justin Trudeau.   That ends that debate point.

Speaking of Bill C-51. Instead of taking the high ground Justin ducked it and let Mulcair score brownie points with his own base.

Liberal voters won’t switch to Harper, but they will run to Mulcair if they feel that he’s the real choice to usurp Harper and our PM’s team is using that urgency in the opposition to pump up Mulcair.

It’s not rocket science.

Mike Duffy and the bag of scandals?    That’s not having a real impact.  Stevie can sleep with his cat and Blue voters will still vote blue and his detractors still won’t vote switch.  Frankly the Senate mess has been pointed right back at the Liberals with their previous historical majority.

They’ve also run their course.  There’s not much magic left in the bag.

At the end of the day Justin simply has shown a lack of his father’s magic when it comes to the real deal of politicking which rarely happens on debate night.    Justin will do fairly well, but without May we just might see Harper & Mulcair team up on Trudeau, because Mulcair will run with Harper for as long as he can.

He also failed in media handling of the “Unite the Middle” discussion of merging the dippers and grits.

And by the time the ballots are counted, without Robo calls this time even, our Prime Minister will be sitting with another Federal majority.

Based on our secret CFN algorithms if an election occurred in June 2015 Mr. Harper would have 174 seats and his majority.

What will we see next?   A massive amount of cash doled out in advertising and vote buying in ridings and special demographic targets.    The NDP will stay the course and look like the real alternative leaving Trudeau very little maneuver room.

And Elizabeth May will be left in dark until her party can muster at least 10 seats, which won’t be in 2015. (if ever)

Frankly at this point it would make sense for Ms May to switch outfits and sign on with the party she can swing the best deal with which at this point is a toss up…

2015 Federal Election Poll JULY 2015

  • Stephen Harper (43%, 75 Votes)
  • Justin Trudeau (24%, 42 Votes)
  • Thomas Mulcair (23%, 39 Votes)
  • Other (6%, 11 Votes)
  • Elizabeth May (3%, 6 Votes)

Total Voters: 173

Loading ... Loading ...

What do you think dear CFN viewers?  Who will you be voting for in 2015?

 

77 Comments

  1. Was that picture really necessary? Grosssssssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  2. I can’t see another majority for Harper. He’s the most despised PM in my memory. With our screwed up electoral system and vote splitting, he might squeak in with a minority.

  3. Furtz….weirder things have happened. Just look at the last Ontario election. Everyone said Wynne (McGuinty Jr) would be lucky to win a few seats. What happened? The Liberals shot themselves in the foot with their leader and Wynne gets a majority government.

  4. Furtz no matter how people feel about Harpoon Harpo we all know that he is the only one besides Thomas the cat Mulcair who is fit to be PM. People have not seen an NDP leader in the federal level because big businesses own and control the PM, etc. The NDP works for the little people. Justine Trudope knows absolutely nothing about economy, law, etc. and is only a drama teacher in a private school – he is absolutely useless and only carries the Trudope name but he is in no way like his old man. Justine has no education that is needed for that job. We are stuck with Harpoon Harpo until something happens. Furtz you mentioned about Harpo having a wax job done well there he is already to have one. LOL LOL. ROLF!

  5. Jules, Harper is fit to be PM? LOL LOL. ROLF!

  6. Heaven help us if the NDP form the next government. And we’ll need even more help if the Cons form the government again.

  7. I hope that your prediction comes true, PM Harper is the only one able to run this country in this tought time.I worry that Liberal voters will turn to Tommy as they realize that Trudeau has no idea how to run this great Country, but that would be like jumping out of the pot & into the fire……..very poor taste in your picture!!!

  8. Maybe the left could do better in these tough times. Not the liberal left but the far far left. No track record on being competent when it comes to financial concepts other than an unwavering socialist approach. When the NDP eventually form the government everyone will be able to stay at home and receive every benefit imaginable in copious amounts without the risk of having to pay for anything. It will all be completely free and life will be much better then when we had to listen to Conservatives tell us we needed to be realistic. Ya it will be good. We will get all our entitlements and the unions will protect everyone. No one will be fired because there will be no jobs to worry about.

  9. As a dyed in the wool pinko, I think a Dipper government would be ducky.

  10. Seriously….people actually want Harper AGAIN as PM??? Time to shake your heads people.

  11. Hugger there is nobody who is capable of running our Canada except Harpoon Harpo and yes many people hate him but honest to God I swear to you and all that he is the only person qualified. Justine has no education at all and knows absolutely nothing at all about economy, law, etc. If a person knows nothing at all then they shouldn’t be in that job. Thomas the cat is the only other person qualified and he is a lawyer. Justine is only a drama teacher in a private school. We have no other choice until someone else replaces Harpoon Harpo but until then we are literally stuck with him and yes he is the only one capable of running Canada. Justine needs to be replaced and it cannot continue going on with someone who has absolutely no qualifications at all. I will stay with Harpoon Harpo even though he is not to my liking he is the best person for the job as PM.

  12. Sorry Jules….time for Harper to go. Perhaps it’s time for a coalition government. Harper has been screwing the country for far too long.

  13. Hugger, Harper will be kicking his lunch-pail down the road before the snow flies. If the Cons eek out .a minority win, we’ll see a Dipper/Lib coalition, and Harper will face a leadership review and vote. He has become toxic to Canadians and his party.

  14. Hugger I agree that Harpoon Harpo has many faults and has done a great deal of damage for Canada and more than you know about but until there is a replacement for Harpoon Harpo and for Justine Trudope then we are in a terrible fix. Harpoon Harpo is the only one who can run Canada whether it be a majority or a minority government he is the only one who is qualified. PM’s age ten years in one. I know too much about Harpoon Harpo and it isn’t all good but like I said he is the only one so far that we have.

  15. Seriously Jules? A coalition government would do wonders for this country. Harper has done enough damage to this great country. Time for him to be replaced. Coalition governments are as good as or better than minority governments.

  16. I gather what you mean Hugger but you have to realize that Justine knows aboslutely about economy, law, etc. and it would be like putting “yours truly your wacky Jules” in charge. LOL LOL. ROLF! Things are bad enouogh as they are and if the people knew what the leader of Canada our own Harpoon Harpo did along with leaders of other countries everyoine would be scouting out trees to hang them onto. Being PM is no easy thing at all and there is so much to this job that would make anyone go completely insane. It is bad enough having a Clinton/Bush in the US and both are bad as one another and much more than our Canadian people are aware of. I know that Harpoon Harpo is a kiss a$$ to the US but he was elected to do a job and all leaders in all countries have owners yes owners. The banksters as in gangsters along with the big corporations own the leaders. We the little people have absolutely no say and that is why everything has gone to hell in a hand basket everywhere.

  17. I agree Justin Trudeau is not ready to be PM. But Harper has destroyed this once great country. Time for a coalition government.

  18. Coalition ? If their combined votes are anything like CFN poll, PM Harper will still win:)

  19. Hugger when you mentioned coalition with Justine and Thomas the cat that won’t work out at all. The owners – the real owners of these PM’s will not accept that at all. If Justine is not capable of running as a PM on his own two feet then he should step aside and have another Liberal/Fiberal take his place. Justine is mighty weak and to be PM or a President or a King or Queen you have to be tough to handle what comes around. So far Harpoon Harpo is the only one who has those capabilities even though he is not to my liking but he is the candidate for that job. NDP represents the little people and that won’t do with the powers that be that own and control him. Justine is not fit for the job as PM at all whatsoever. Justine lacks the personallity as well as the education and knowledge and without a natural strong character he cannot be PM.

  20. The only poll that counts is the one on election day. If a coalition government is formed it’ll be with Mulcair as PM. Justin is too young and inexperienced to be PM.

  21. Jules nails it about Trudeau. The Libs crowned the wrong leader yet again. The Dippers chose the right leader even if he does have a beard.

  22. Latest poll of over 5000 people has #1 Harper 38% #2 Mulcair 27% #3 Trudeau 25%

  23. David Oldham….I think Justin’ words were that there would be no “formal” coalition. IMHO that leaves open the option of an “informal” colation. Politicians are famous for twisting words to suit their needs.

  24. David, Trudeau was just blowing smoke when he said that. It was trash talk that every party spouts before an election.

  25. Mary, there was a poll conducted a few days ago by Billy-Bob’s Polling Service that clearly showed that the Cons will win a majority if Peewee Herman replaces Harper.

  26. {MODERATED} Jules cut it out please.

  27. I was reading about something somewhere about how Canada has gone downhill and one of the bloggers wrote that there hasn’t been a decent leader since the 1970’s and I myself will fully agree to that. In the past you didn’t see all the insanity that goes on today and most people had jobs and we lived pretty good. Our leaders were true leaders and we didn’t get ourselves involved in insane wars and we were respected everywhere we went. All we see today is total and complete corruption on all levels of government and the neglect of the people and all politicians are into today is to feather their pockets by any means. This (today) is no longer the Canada that I respected and loved – it has gone down hill to God knows where. I will say something though and that is that until there is a good leader (which I doubt will come anytime soon) Harpoon Harpo is the only one who can lead at present.

  28. An informal coalition would not be a united opposition nor a recognized minority/majority government. There is no purpose to that statement and if he helped form a coalition with the NDP he would join the long list of political liars that Canadians have become accustomed to and unfortunately resigned themselves to expect as merely part of our new ugly political reality game.

  29. Hey Furtz …were you in the theatre when Peewee revealed his availability?

  30. One thing is sure and that is you will never ever see NDP in federal government. You will see it in provincial and municipal but never in federal at all whatsoever. So if you are imagining about a coalition government of Justine and Thomas the Cat forget it. The big corporations and banksters will not accept NDP at all. The Cons and the Lib/Fibs are owned and controlled by the big corporations and tlhat kind of a government is known as “fascism”. I wish that all of you would look up the fascist sticks in the US Congress and I used to see it on the US 10 cent piece way back when. The same government is true in the US and even in Europe, etc. Big corporations along with big banks rule everything. Wait until you hear about what is in TPP and your hair will raise. There will be no honest politician – I don’t see any until God rules the world.

  31. So the solution is 5 more years of Harper? I don’t think so!!!

  32. David, I am Peewee Herman. Of course I was there. And I had a firm grip on the situation too. I was framed by crooked cops, and the whole world knows that!

  33. Jules / David Oldham….don’t count your chickens before they hatch. There have been coalition governments before in Canada. I think Canadians are tired of seeing what Harpoon Harper and his croonies have done to this once great country.

  34. Hugger! the country we see today is a result of internal changes primarily made in the seventies by a Liberal politician by the name of Pierre Trudeau coupled by an ever changing global environment. Massive spending (debt), official bilingualism, change to the metric system, wide open immigration policies, then as we moved into the early eighties a charter rife with errors and a hold out province (Quebec). There is no single issue or political party responsible rather it is an accumulative combined effect. Some may call it progress others might call it something rather different. Bottom line, Canadians are getting what they voted for and the apathetic Canadians along for the ride just don’t care so the time is ripe for us to become inspired and united in purpose as a nation and truly move into the future.

    One has to remain an optimist.

  35. Author

    David don’t forget NAFTA which has decimated our industrial capabilities and seriously hurt our sovereign economy….

  36. I guess everyone has their opinion on what caused canada to become the mess it has become.

  37. I agree Jamie. When the Mulroney Cons handed over our manufacturing and resource sectors to American interests in 1987, the giant sucking sound began. Interesting that in the lead up to winning his party leadership, he was adamantly against free trade with the USA.
    Moral of the story: NEVER trust a Conservative!

  38. Author

    Furtz sadly my experience is that PC’s Grits and Dippers all bleed the same colour….They will dump/turn on a friend in a NY minute.

  39. Hey Furtz…free trade with the U.S.A. ended in 1866. The liberals long promoted a return to free trade and in fact it was a noted liberal that led the committee that advised Mulroney. Advice that ultimately led to a deal which was later replaced by NAFTA which was negotiated by the Liberal Party of Canada under Jean Chretien. You were correct however on Mulroney not initially being on board. Free trade was not popular with the Canadian public at the time.

    The deal was rife with exclusions and problematic with regards to adhesion. You may remember the soft wood lumber issues which violated the agreement. The loss of manufacturing in Canada has more to do with factors that run much deeper than free trade.

    Check the world map and track how industrialization/manufacturing has migrated over the last 70 years and note the relationship between the cost of power and the cost of labour and the bureaucratic cost of doing business in a particular jurisdiction. Free trade or not the balance was going to change as it will change again. Everything is intricately connected and balance is currently on a razors edge. Manufacturing returning to Ontario given the mismanagement on the energy file by the Ontario Liberals is not even a long shot bet.

  40. {MODERATED} Jules, please keep your comments short and on topic. Please address parties by name and not abusive terms.

  41. Harper is the ONLY choice to run this Country and for anyone who thinks differently – well too bad – so sad – you will ALL see a Conservative MAJORITY Government come October !!! Go Harper Go ! BEST PM Canada has EVER had !!

    Kevin Shea
    Ottawa

  42. Best PM ever? Not according to various surveys, etc.

  43. There is no such thing as “free trade” and everything has a price. I remember a unit in Revenue Canada called “Anti dumping” and that had to do with trade of not allowing countries to just dump their goods on Canada and expect sales. When “lying Brian Mulroney” came on the scene and was serenading the idiot Canadian people along with the Bush Sr. family to pull the wool over the sheeples eyes and came out with the “so called free trade” which isn’t free at all. I think that it was Mr. Oldham that gave a little lesson here to all about it being abandoned back in 1866 or something like that. All of you have a great deal to learn and so many people are so mighty naive. Harpoon Harpo is not my cup of tea at all and I can find tons of defect in him and his party but I will tell you the straight goods and that is he is the only one to lead Canada. I had a good laugh reading Ottawa’s newspapers today about Justine Trudope and one man said that he had his mother’s brains and how mighty true that is which isn’t much to crow about. LOL LOL. ROLF!

  44. I have to assume that Kevin Shea is joking. The Harper Cons are circling the drain and will get the big flush in October.

  45. Furtz I have seen the stats on the coming elections and Harpoon Harpo is ahead. Justine is a lame brain idiot and has nothing like his father at all and all like his mother. The only other person qualified to be PM is Thomas the Cat and no NDP has gotten in to be PM and will never be because the real owners of Canada and the entire world will not have it at all until they pull the plug and have a socialist/communist world order which is in the making. I told all of you the truth and it is in the Bible as well as in the plans of the elite of the world. If you think that things are bad now just hold your shorts and see what is to come. If you can locate the book: “Pawns in the Game” please read it and it is an old book from the 1950’s who tells all. Harpoon Harpo is not my cup of tea but he is the only person capable of running Canada. Justine is as dumb as can be and knows absolutely nothing at all.

  46. I agree Furtz with your comments of at 4:24 pm. But some don’t seem to understand the only poll that counts is on election day. A lot of polls have been very, very wrong of what they think will happen. This will happen again when Harper and his croonies are tossed out on their ears.

  47. A lot of uninformed, uneducated and probably greedy and most likely ENTITLED aka Unionized people commenting on this. The voters better be very very careful in October – elect Justin Trudeau and he will finish the devastation right across the Country – same as what Wynne and McGuinty have done to Ontario. Elect Mulcair and people will only ensure that the Unions are even more firmly entrenched across the Country when in large part, it has been the Unions, along with Wynne and McGuinty who have absolutely devastated Ontario !! GO HARPER GO !!

    Kevin Shea
    Ottawa

  48. Yes Kevin. Anyone who doesn’t support the Harper Cons is uninformed and uneducated. And anyone who disagrees with your political views is really really stupid. We get it.

  49. It seems Kevin Shea has joined the “Jules” club. Apparently we’re all uninformed, uneducated and probably greedy and most likely ENTITLED aka Unionized people commenting on this. I agree with Furtz’s comments @July 30, 2015 at 8:05 am.

Leave a Reply