Why Stephen Harper Will Have Another Majority & Where Justin Trudeau Failed by Jamie Gilcig JULY 19, 2015

Why Stephen Harper Will Have Another Majority & Where Justin Trudeau Failed by Jamie Gilcig JULY 19, 2015

You can save that headline and throw it my face in October or I may move up in the political pundit rankings here in Canada.

Do I know something some other Canadians don’t?  Am I psychic?  Do I have special powers?

When you mix an education at the foot of a political spell caster like Keith Beardsley and mix that with an understanding of story telling from writing screenplays I think I capture a certain essence when it comes to seeing the trends in politics.

Enough about moi.   Back to our Prime Minister who has been playing a slow burn take down strategy of his real opponent.   He’s sucked the oxygen out of the Timmy’s crowd several times.

Refusing to debate?  Money in the bank.   Does he really need Liz May screeching in his ear doing the heavy lifting for Justin?

All the ink went to Harper with no negative repercussions.

Bill C-51?  Harper missed that one.  Actually the only Federal leader to sign on that day was…. Justin Trudeau.   That ends that debate point.

Speaking of Bill C-51. Instead of taking the high ground Justin ducked it and let Mulcair score brownie points with his own base.

Liberal voters won’t switch to Harper, but they will run to Mulcair if they feel that he’s the real choice to usurp Harper and our PM’s team is using that urgency in the opposition to pump up Mulcair.

It’s not rocket science.

Mike Duffy and the bag of scandals?    That’s not having a real impact.  Stevie can sleep with his cat and Blue voters will still vote blue and his detractors still won’t vote switch.  Frankly the Senate mess has been pointed right back at the Liberals with their previous historical majority.

They’ve also run their course.  There’s not much magic left in the bag.

At the end of the day Justin simply has shown a lack of his father’s magic when it comes to the real deal of politicking which rarely happens on debate night.    Justin will do fairly well, but without May we just might see Harper & Mulcair team up on Trudeau, because Mulcair will run with Harper for as long as he can.

He also failed in media handling of the “Unite the Middle” discussion of merging the dippers and grits.

And by the time the ballots are counted, without Robo calls this time even, our Prime Minister will be sitting with another Federal majority.

Based on our secret CFN algorithms if an election occurred in June 2015 Mr. Harper would have 174 seats and his majority.

What will we see next?   A massive amount of cash doled out in advertising and vote buying in ridings and special demographic targets.    The NDP will stay the course and look like the real alternative leaving Trudeau very little maneuver room.

And Elizabeth May will be left in dark until her party can muster at least 10 seats, which won’t be in 2015. (if ever)

Frankly at this point it would make sense for Ms May to switch outfits and sign on with the party she can swing the best deal with which at this point is a toss up…

2015 Federal Election Poll JULY 2015

  • Stephen Harper (43%, 75 Votes)
  • Justin Trudeau (24%, 42 Votes)
  • Thomas Mulcair (23%, 39 Votes)
  • Other (6%, 11 Votes)
  • Elizabeth May (3%, 6 Votes)

Total Voters: 173

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What do you think dear CFN viewers?  Who will you be voting for in 2015?


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