Why Stephen Harper Will Have Another Majority & Where Justin Trudeau Failed by Jamie Gilcig JULY 19, 2015

You can save that headline and throw it my face in October or I may move up in the political pundit rankings here in Canada.

Do I know something some other Canadians don’t?  Am I psychic?  Do I have special powers?

When you mix an education at the foot of a political spell caster like Keith Beardsley and mix that with an understanding of story telling from writing screenplays I think I capture a certain essence when it comes to seeing the trends in politics.

Enough about moi.   Back to our Prime Minister who has been playing a slow burn take down strategy of his real opponent.   He’s sucked the oxygen out of the Timmy’s crowd several times.

Refusing to debate?  Money in the bank.   Does he really need Liz May screeching in his ear doing the heavy lifting for Justin?

All the ink went to Harper with no negative repercussions.

Bill C-51?  Harper missed that one.  Actually the only Federal leader to sign on that day was…. Justin Trudeau.   That ends that debate point.

Speaking of Bill C-51. Instead of taking the high ground Justin ducked it and let Mulcair score brownie points with his own base.

Liberal voters won’t switch to Harper, but they will run to Mulcair if they feel that he’s the real choice to usurp Harper and our PM’s team is using that urgency in the opposition to pump up Mulcair.

It’s not rocket science.

Mike Duffy and the bag of scandals?    That’s not having a real impact.  Stevie can sleep with his cat and Blue voters will still vote blue and his detractors still won’t vote switch.  Frankly the Senate mess has been pointed right back at the Liberals with their previous historical majority.

They’ve also run their course.  There’s not much magic left in the bag.

At the end of the day Justin simply has shown a lack of his father’s magic when it comes to the real deal of politicking which rarely happens on debate night.    Justin will do fairly well, but without May we just might see Harper & Mulcair team up on Trudeau, because Mulcair will run with Harper for as long as he can.

He also failed in media handling of the “Unite the Middle” discussion of merging the dippers and grits.

And by the time the ballots are counted, without Robo calls this time even, our Prime Minister will be sitting with another Federal majority.

Based on our secret CFN algorithms if an election occurred in June 2015 Mr. Harper would have 174 seats and his majority.

What will we see next?   A massive amount of cash doled out in advertising and vote buying in ridings and special demographic targets.    The NDP will stay the course and look like the real alternative leaving Trudeau very little maneuver room.

And Elizabeth May will be left in dark until her party can muster at least 10 seats, which won’t be in 2015. (if ever)

Frankly at this point it would make sense for Ms May to switch outfits and sign on with the party she can swing the best deal with which at this point is a toss up…

2015 Federal Election Poll JULY 2015

  • Stephen Harper (43%, 75 Votes)
  • Justin Trudeau (24%, 42 Votes)
  • Thomas Mulcair (23%, 39 Votes)
  • Other (6%, 11 Votes)
  • Elizabeth May (3%, 6 Votes)

Total Voters: 173

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What do you think dear CFN viewers?  Who will you be voting for in 2015?



  1. I’m happy that you ENTITLED guys finally got it !!! GO HARPER GO !!!

    Kevin Shea

  2. Kevin Shea ….not many people predicted a liberal majority government for Ontario in the last provincial election. Yet Ontario is sinking further into an unsustainable financial future, with a government rife with political corruption and disrespect for the public purse desperately clinging onto a failed energy program, no clue as to how to deal with the burgeoning demand on a crippled health care system all the while catering to every union with government affiliation in order to obtain votes (which proved very effective last election). Would the provincial government change if there was an election tomorrow? The answer of course is completely irrelevant because there will not be an election for years to come, that is our reality.

    I am free to move to another province as I have already planned to do. I will go to where my dollar is better respected and managed. On a federal level however the situation is much different. If the country decides democratically to move in a direction that further impacts me negatively on a number of important issues then I seriously have to consider my future in Canada. The only other option is to bury my head in the sand like the majority of my apathetic countrymen or embrace hypocrisy. Personally I do not feel capable of either of those options.

    I optimistically hope that the outcome of the federal election is to all our benefit and that we do not end up on the same slippery slope that a country such as Greece finds itself as a result of an increasing sense of entitlement and misdirection.

  3. David – I agree with your sentiments 100% and it is really very very sad that our ENTITLED public servants and the Union Bosses that they listen to have brought this Province to it’s knees ! It’s a shame really and the Ontario Liberals have given them everything they have wanted and more for the past 12 years ! Package that with the absolutely insane energy policies of this same government and those two things alone have resulted in the destruction of this Province !

    In my opinion, the ONLY hope for the rest of Canada is a stable majority Conservative Government in October, and if that does not happen I really do fear for ALL of us – including the ENTITLED !!

    Kevin Shea

  4. … and the problem with Ontario is that the Ontario Liberals have ALL of the ENTITLED in their back pockets – and the ENTITLED will keep voting for the Liberals because they seem to be “blinded by greed” … very very sad and very very scary.

    Kevin Shea

  5. You have to be joking Kevin Shea. Even you must realize that the Ontario Libs won the last two elections because the Cons ran with a repulsive idiot for a leader.

  6. Very funny Furtz. It’s very obvious that the greed of the ENTITLED guaranteed the Ontario Liberals another term. The problem with that is that the ENTITLED are forgetting that sooner or later, destroyed economies will eventually affect them as well. … and the Ontario Liberals are ‘experts’ at destroying the economy of Ontario – and that is in fact – a fact that nobody can deny.

    Kevin Shea

  7. Author

    Now Kevin be fair. Even Conservatives admit Hudak was pretty repugnant. He was probably the worst political leader of this century, and maybe the last one too.

  8. And an awful lot of Conservatives are embarrassed and disgusted with Harper’s underhanded ways and dirty tricks. Just about everyone who helped put Harper in power has abandoned him.

  9. Admin – the biggest problem that Tim Hudak had was his honesty – he told us what was needed – and that was a reduced public service ! That hasn’t changed, we do need a reduced public service because ALL of our money is going out in the form of OBSCENE payroll and benefits ! It’s no different than when a hockey team is in financial trouble – what do they do ? They reduce the payroll.

    This Province is in DIRE need of some of the medicine that Tim Hudak prescribed – and the sooner our ENTITLED take that medicine, the better we will all collectively be. – to use a Union term

    Kevin Shea

  10. Furtz – I know that you won’t agree – possibly because you are one of the ENTITLED but, you probably have more money in your pocket today because of Harper. Had the Libs or NDP been in charge with all that Harper has steered us through – I shudder to think of the shape that we would all be in today.


  11. … and you know Wynne’s “HOT” tax – she calls it High Occupancy Toll – it’s more than likely a Help Our Teachers ploy !!! She needs money to keep her ENTITLED voters on her side – just watch, she has probably already calculated the revenue from the HOT lanes – and she has probably already promised the teachers more dollars !

    Kevin Shea

  12. Author

    Kevin come on now. In my opinion he really wasn’t that honest and I personally know he wasn’t that big on freedom of the press and hid from media outlets like CFN.

    Engineered press conferences with closed door to media…..I know it’s not limited to his party, but I will criticize any politician that pulls stunts like that.

  13. You know the discussion is over when someone suggests that Hudak would have been a good premier.

  14. Admin – whoa whoa whoa – I am talking about his honesty regarding conveying the message that the public service NEEDED to be trimmed and trimmed substantially – and regarding that topic – he was very honest – actually honest to a fault, and that honesty was a huge factor in his defeat – and so to me – that says to me that the voters of Ontario did not like the Doctor’s prescription. I happen to believe that his prescription was right on the mark ! Sooner or later , our ENTITLED have to be ‘dealt with’ because as it stand snow – it is unsustainable.


  15. For those who think Harper is the best PM ever please check the links below. The first link shows that attack ad the Cons are running against Trudeau seems to be having the opposite effect. And the second link shows Harper’s economic record compared to other PM’s since the Second World War.



  16. Entitled? I know I’m not and I’m pretty sure Furtz and admin arent.

  17. … another example of our ENTITLED – recently, here in Ottawa the head of the Police Union is griping in the media that morale with the officers is very low. I suggested to the Mayor here that maybe he should impose e new “COP” tax on the people of Ottawa – and call it a “Cheer-up Our Police| tax ! We wouldn’t want to see our ENTITLED unhappy now would we ?

    The Unions, in so many sectors, are just outta control – time they had a severe reality CHEQUE !

    Kevin Shea

  18. Author

    Kevin I think Patrick Brown is a better and smarter leader than Tim Hudak. At least at this point. I think though if you want to go full partisan any argument you make will be filtered and ultimately fail. If you can’t admit that Hudak blew chunks it colours any of your points.

  19. Author

    No, I’m a victim of all three party’s.

  20. Furtz – what I “suggested” was that Tim Hudak’s thinking in regards to a reduced Provincial Public Service was absolutely correct !! Our ENTITLED Public Service is way way out of control and needs to be cut way way back – oh, and btw Furtz, your tax dollars and mine have to pay for that.

    Kevin Shea

  21. Admin – I agree with you about Patrick Brown. I hope he is able to successfully pull the party together – his HUGE problem will be the ENTITLED and their Union Bosses.


  22. It is a bit odd that partisan con folk aren’t commenting on the PM opening up the writ period early? Desperation mode? How many millions of dollars will be wasted so that Harper can try and cling to power? If it is opened this week, it would be longest since 1926.

  23. It is a bit odd that partisan con folk aren’t commenting on the PM opening up the writ period early? Desperation mode? How many millions of dollars will be wasted so that Harper can try and cling to power? If it is opened this week, it would be longest since 1926.

  24. There is something that most if not all of you do not know about and that is that Canada is at least 1 trillion dollars in debt – I will repeat that again – Canada is at least 1 trillion dollars in debt. All three parties will have a mighty hard time getting out of this debt. Wait until the fall to see what will happen. There will be many shocks to come from now till 2020. The people of Iceland knew what to do with the inernational banksters as ub gabgsters which they all are. You will all see one country after another crashing and yes our Canada as well.

  25. Jean Beasceau, Elections Canada estimated the cost to taxpayers for a six week election to be about $300 million. For an eleven week election, they say it will be closer to $700 million. But if it gives the Harper Cons an edge, it’s worth every penny! No?

  26. Jules, a lot of countries are in debt. Canada is not the only one. It wasn’t the first and certainly won’t be the last.

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