CFN 2015 FEDERAL Election ULTRA Snapshot for AUG 22, 2015 by Jamie Gilcig

As some may know I’ve always been a stat hound, and numbers person including being the Montreal Canadiens first video statographer way back in 1996.  Before the days of today’s Analytics my system created tools to quantify results in hockey and included a filtering system for player performance.  IE if a player was in the KHL and would be moved to the NHL my system would give a snapshot of the results.

It was interesting recently looking back at some of my player reports (some players names were run by me previous to the trade deadline that year).   It’s even funnier that with all the convoluted stat tools my system basics still haven’t been matched.

Now in 2015 I’m applying some of these skills to this Federal Election.   It was inspired by the immensely talented Eric Grenier of but I don’t use his system.

We will be posting a series of snapshots of potential election results.

Here is today’s with data included up to August 21, 2015.   IE, as of the data compiled today this is the prediction of seat totals for October 19th.

1) NDP – Thomas Mulcair – 129 seats

2) Conservatives – Stephen Harper – 125 seats

3) Liberals – Justin Trudeau – 82 seats

4) Green Party – Elizabeth May – 1 seat

5) Bloc Quebecois – Gilles Duceppe – 1 seat

If these numbers were to pan out it would lead to some interesting jousting to see who would support whom in a Minority government situation?

What seat totals do you predict Canada?  You can post your comments below.

1 Comment

  1. Is there a bylaw controlling the number of election signs each political party can put on vacant lands… ic no bylaw then maybe there should be instead of going after kids selling lemonade or selling worms? WHat do you think Bill Kingston?

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