2014 Ontario Election Predictions, Reviews, Endorsements & Endorsnots by Jamie Gilcig June 9, 2014

jg2CORNWALL Ontario – I have personally never seen such an ugly and desolate election as the one occurring here in Ontario.

The only blessing is that it’s been a short one.

It hasn’t been dragged out.  One would have to ask even why it happened?

It’s looking as though one party is flirting with a majority win which if happens would be one of the most bewildering calls in North American history.

It clearly shows the problem with partisan party politics and our system.

On June 12 Ontario essentially loses no matter what the results as there really aren’t options for voters.   You’re picking which way you want to be punished and that essentially what will happen to tax payers after this call.

On the one hand we have our current Liberal government.   It was elected one seat shy of a majority.  Many have speculated that the one seat was SD&G which was held by Jim Brownell who bowed out and retired because of health concerns, but many have suggested he simply could not hold onto the seat and didn’t want to lose an election.

This is a government whose leader and premier Dalton McGuinty fell on his own sword and resigned over scandal.  The party decided to stay the course and put insider Kathleen Wynne as their designate to succeed him.   Ms Wynne’s record has been spotty as she herself has been linked to some of the scandals that brought down Mr. McGuinty.

In other words this was a government that really was waiting to be knocked over and after throwing hissy fits since the last election PC leader Tim Hudak got his wish when NDP leader Andrea Horwath pulled the Liberal plug as the latest budget rolled out.

Her main reason was corruption.   I think one of the reasons that the NDP have polled so weakly is simply that it makes no sense to prop up the Liberals for as long as the NDP did and then expect voters to hug you.   Ontario voters have not hugged Ms Horwath.

Frankly the best solution would be a NDP minority win; but that isn’t even in their own party polling tea leaves.

Tim Hudak surely has to be the most despised party leader in the last 10o years.  I would wager that Pauline Marois had more support in Quebec than Mr. Hudak has in Ontario and that’s not saying much.

Mr. Hudak blew his party’s chances right at the gate as he announced he’d cut 100,000 civil service jobs.    It’s one thing to share that over beverages at a partisan event, but to announce it?   That created at least 100,000 committed anti-Hudak campaigners and that’s before adding in their friends and family.

The problem is that many in Ontario agree with PC principles.   They want less government.  The debt scares the crap out of them; but how some of these issues have been handled by the Hudak team is like Gumby Surgery!

Instead of letting the public focus on the Wynne/McGuinty Liberal scandals Mr. Hudak and his team shifted focus to themselves; a total amateur strategy that has blown up in their faces except for the most partisan of areas.

And that’s how this election is rolling.   After you take out the basic partisan voters it’s come down to jobs and how people will do just about anything and vote for just about anyone to keep theirs.   In this case it’s looking like Kathleen Wynne will win her first election as Premier in spite of her policies and her party’s poor government.

That’s scary.

According to the latest numbers from Eric Grenier’s threehundredeight.com the Libs would take 54 of 107 seats which give them a majority of one seat!  The numbers float between 38 and 78. (numbers are up to June 8, 2014)

As for Andrea Horwath and the NDP; after calling for the election if the polls stand up, she would have actually lost seats which means she would have done an actual worse job than Tim Hudak which most likely mean the end of her leadership.   The Liberal push that a vote for Horwath is a vote for Hudak has penetrated.

The scariest issue in this election though has been the stranglehold that Unions seem to have in Provincial results.   Since the Liberals have shown little to no signs of restraint how much longer can the average Ontarian pay the freight of Union contracts and pensions when workers in the private sector’s income don’t even come close in many fields?

The OPPA coming out against Mr. Hudak may have been the straw that broke his leadership back and may be the end of his time running the Blue team.

Where is the push back or the fiscal balance for our province and our future?  Could you imagine what would happen to Ontario if interest rates doubled with our debt?

In our region there is little change to occur.   Steve Clark will have no problems retaining Leeds Grenville.   Jim McDonell the same for SD&G although the NDP under scandalized City Councilor Elaine MacDonald are pushing to finish a distant second behind a destroyed local Liberal offering of John Earle.   Glengarry Prescott Russell shows incumbent Grant Crack about to lose his seat to the PC’s.  Mr. Crack’s campaign has not benefited from party shifts; perhaps because of poor marketing and a poor campaign?

Locally in SD&G it was a quiet campaign.   Very poor public attendance of most candidate debates was the norm as they were poorly promoted.    Most were simply regurgitation of party positions and most of the crowd were partisan supporters or team members.

One debate had less than 40 in attendance.  Voter apathy at an all time high in a riding that is seeing many of its young people leaving or focused on leaving.

MPP Jim McDonell NOV 2012

MPP Jim McDonell will retain the seat for Mr. Hudak.  Mr. McDonell is the Municipal Critic for his party.  During his term he’s been known for his silence or limp protest on almost all major issues such as the Cornwall General Hospital facility being sold off for pennies on the dollar; the bilingual nursing protest and the largest city in his riding coming under repeated fire with at least three whistle blowing cases.

On top of that his own former staffer, David Murphy, is a councilor for Cornwall and some of his campaign supporters and workers are embroiled in issues such as Cornwall Councillor Glen Grant and South Stormont Deputy Mayor Tammy Hart.

Mr. McDonell also was in hot water early in the term for suggesting that the McGuinty government were behaving like Nazi’s; something the MPP eventually apologized for.

While the excuses of the PC party not being in power was used repeatedly by his supporters the reality is that there were many issues that needed to be addressed that simply weren’t.  He also has this odd tendency on twitter of always shouting at one media outlet in particular which seems a curious way to do things?

Again, like Ms Wynne at the provincial level, Mr. McDonell has benefited from weak and incompetent competition.

Elaine BurntNDP candidate Elaine MacDonald’s stranglehold on the riding association means that she was able to run again in spite of the issues she’s been a part of with Cornwall City Council.   Multiple managers lost their careers this term due to scandal and whistle blowing.

The city paid for two HR managers after long time manager Robert Menagh was let go without cause.   He was on the Sunshine list for two years while his replacement, who just retired, earned more money with less qualifications.   The official spin was that the city wanted to go in a new direction.   They’ve just added insult to injury by spending over $20K on a consultant to find a new HR manager.

You know you have to be pretty conflicted when your  own corrupt council puts together a new Conflict of Interest policy.   In this case Ms MacDonald not only didn’t recuse herself, but actually debated and voted for two groups that she was on the board or committee of.

Ms MacDonald is on the board of the Agape Food Bank.  She involved herself in two issues that directly financially impacted the charity; the first for funding from the city and the second was passing policy about used clothing bins which competed with the Agape.   She also was on the University Committee and did not step away during its pitch for over $60,000 in funding.

City Councilor David Murphy,  not known as a deep thinker, knew enough to step out of that debate simply because he’s employed by one of the committee members; yet Ms MacDonald even defended her position.

hairI feel bad for Liberal candidate John Earle.   I could just hear his good buddies Mark Owen of Indie Guitars and former campaigner (and police board member until his DUI) and Bob Peters encouraging him to run.

Earle’s wife is Agape director Alyssa Blais(won’t go there in this story)  who was supposed to be running for council.   He’s also been supported by his benefactor’s in this town; chiefly patronage gigs via his buddy Bob Peter’s of Economic Development and spin offs from Cornwall/Seaway Tourism.

Some of questioned if he’d actually ever had a non patronage job in his adult life which essentially would make him the perfect candidate to be a Liberal politician.

The soft spoken Mr. Earle however was no match for Ms MacDonald in the debates or the improved oratory skills of MPP McDonell.

He is the poster child of what’s wrong with Liberal politics in this riding and this province.

earle poster

Even a campaign poster features Jim Brownell front and centre instead of Mr. Earle.

Sad, pathetic, Liberal.


Provincially – None this year.

SD&G – None this year.

Leeds Grenville- Steve Clark, I still like this guy!

GPR – None this year.


Provincially – Hudak, & Wynne.    Frankly I can’t see a situation where I could vote for either.

SD&G: McDonell, Earle, and MacDonald.  This riding is poorly represented this year.

GPR – None .

Leeds Grenville – None.

Final Ontario Election Poll for 2014 - Who Will You Vote for In SD&G?

  • Jim McDonell PC (42%, 56 Votes)
  • John Earle LIBERAL (34%, 45 Votes)
  • Elaine MacDonald NDP (17%, 23 Votes)
  • Other (12%, 16 Votes)

Total Voters: 133

Loading ... Loading ...

My fearless predictions?

SD&G Jim McDonell  PC + 65% of the ballots cast.

Ontario – Wynne 53 seats

Who will you vote for on June 12, 2014?  You can post your comments below.

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  1. Previous election I could not, but this election I absolute shall vote Hudak.

  2. There is nobody running provincially or locally who I would vote for in this our 3 stooges system. Rather than throw away my vote on these asses I will be giving my vote to the Greens this time.

  3. @Max… if unsatisfied by the three main options, instead of wasting a vote on the Greens, a louder protest message can be sent via a blank ballot. A unmarked, blank ballot gets registered as a vote for none of the above. Would be powerful if ‘none of the above’ won in a few ridings!

  4. Pretty good take on this election Jamie. Just one point I disagree with. You say that Tim Hudak surely has to be the most despised party leader in the last 100 years. I agree that Hudak is a repulsive little man with asinine plans that he has imported from his Texas Tea-Party friends. But the most despised and hated honour has to go to Mike Harris.

  5. Good on Max Score for doing what our household is doing, throwing our support behind the Greens, and not one of the three major provincial parties.

  6. Today I got junk mail of 2 identical pieces from the Cons and Fiberals back to back. Someone must want our votes awful bad and I through them in the recycling. I will tell you all something and that is you cannot spend your way out of debt. The harness has to come on and I know that Hudak (who dat) who is McGuinty’s cousin wants to cut and I am all for the cuts especially about the mighty lazy teachers who are nothing but zoo keepers who only show up for work 10 months of the year and not always in the right condition (I do know what goes on). We have to go through another Mike Harris (Harrass) system. If Winnie gets in the taxes will shoot above everyone’s head and that is the truth. You have to be strong. Cut the damn cable (idiot box) and believe me I know of millionaires from the days that my mom babysat and the man was an engineer with Bell Northern Research and they played the stock market back in the days and they were millionaires (multi millionaires) and they had only one channel in the house on rabbit ears back then. These people have children who are engineers today and the eldest is a lawyer in Vancouver B.C. Throw the idiot box and anything non essential and learn to cook and enjoy each other’s company. Play board games together as a family. The hell with Hollyweird and all. Society today is mighty sick in the head.

  7. Author

    Furtz I put Harris way above Hudak. Some may not agree with his positions; but he was a very straight forward politician who didn’t pull punches and generally did what he said he would do which surprised a lot of people.

  8. Rambling on. I ain’t buying what you’re selling.

  9. Fear of the future is common. Voters need to educate themselves because 10’s of millions of dollars of ad’s by the 19 Ontario unions is just scaremongering.

    We need to stop paying over 10 billion a year on interest, folks the credit card is maxed out.

    Billions more on schools but 250,000 less students needs a serious look.

    This green energy plan was flawed and now we may be hit with a 400 million lawsuit from the states because of the McGuinty plan.

  10. According to Frank Graves on ipolitics, as of today June 10th, the Cons and Libs are in a dead heat for the third day in a row. http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/06/10/they-dont-get-any-closer-than-this/
    This is an epic failure, once again, for Hudak. The Cons should be way ahead in the polls and headed for a clear majority. Pretty much everyone agrees that the Libs should be tossed out, but thanks to Hudak and his asinine Tea-Party platform, it’s looking like the Libs will prevail.

  11. The Cons need to keep Hudak’s mouth shut. If they had done that they’d be going for a majority. Now, that he babbles on we may be looking at another Fiberal minority government propped up yet again by the NDP. ARGHHH!!!!

    Unions should not be able to spend union dues on political ads. That is not what union dues is for.

    “Green energy” in Ontario is a joke with what is paid to wind and solar farms. And wind and solar may be renewable energies, but very unreliable.

  12. To place blame on Hudak is naive. Voters are with stark choice between the current destructive, corruptive, pandering status quo and change. Only the naive buy into the fear mongering of Wynne and the unprecedented $millions in over-the-top,fear mongering advertising by record number of teacher/public sector unions… and of course the ever popular anti-Conservative union group masquerading as Working Families Coalition.

    As for Harris he along with only a handful of very few others was a honest politician and mostly did as he said he would do. Kudos to Harris for integrity, honesty, leadership, common sense and gonads. How much easier election time would be if other leaders conveyed similar honesty and moral integrity. The Left and mainstream media fail to acknowledge the effect Chretien/Paul Martin had on Ontario in balancing the federal budget. Their cutting of transfer payments to Ontario very much resulted in some of the cutbacks instituted by Harris. Fact is, when when we vote in pandering, incompetent over spenders, and the fiscally inept, tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, spend mentality, it unfortunately eventually results in need of tough, unpopular measures. In essence we do it to ourselves.

    I believe Hudak has over stated his goals… I do not believe he will achieve 1 million jobs during his term, nor do I believe he will fully reduce the public service to that of his announced 2009 levels. Regardless both initiatives are a definite step in the right direction. Empire building the public service as the Liberals have done is not the answer! The answer to economic growth absolutely is in growing the private sector and creating private sector jobs… to initiate policies that are business friendly. That answer is not increased taxes and user fees, not increased bureaucracy, not increased gov’t debt and deficit, not a soon to be announced devalued Ontario credit rating and certainly not in a foolish, ineffective ‘green’ policy resulting in the highest electricity rates in North America! It certainly is not another term of Liberal corruption, taxation and fiscal incompetence!

  13. I agree with Jamie that Mike Harris was straight forward and no games were played behind people’s backs. Yes he made mistakes but none can say that they were perfect. I think that if Mike were back he could beat Hudak (who dat) in no time flat. Hudak would be the one that I would vote for if I were voting which I am not. Those cards were torn and sent to the recycling. I just saw where there at at least 6% of the people who will not be voting in this election. Yes it is a Monte Python election for sure. Not one of them are any good but Hudak is on the right track.

  14. I don’t recall Harris promising to gut water and food inspection agencies, or promising to force the poorest of the poor out of their affordable housing to freeze on the streets, or promising to unleash the OPP to quell peaceful protests, or promising to sell off provincial assets at a fraction of their worth, and I could go on.

  15. So, Garfield, can you explain why the Cons didn’t win the last election handily, or why they aren’t poised to win this election big-time? Most people have been fed up with the Libs, and rightly so, for several years now. You say it has nothing to do with Hudak and his asinine Tea-Party stance? Are you serious? If it wasn’t for Hudak, the Cons would have won a majority two years ago, and we wouldn’t even be having this election right now.

  16. Author

    I think many Liberals are as fed up of this government than there are Cons who are fed up with Hudak.

  17. Yup. A lot of Libs are fed up and truly embarrassed by their party’s performance in government. So many stupid and inexcusable screw-ups. Then they look at Hudak and see a completely incompetent fool, and gag. Not sure, but I bet a lot of Libs will be parking their votes with Horwath this time. Thursday evening will be interesting.
    My prediction… and I’m almost never right… Another minority either Lib or Con, and another election with new leaders same time next year.

  18. Furtz the first thing that Mike Harris said was to cut the welfare and he was right. If you use your very good intelligence that you have just take a while and think hard that when you cut the welfare and the social housing then yes people will be on the streets homeless like what happened. Harris had no choice in the matter at all. As for the tainted water and taking away health inspectors for food, etc. that part should not have happened. I am against unions all together and my daughter is in a union where she is but she is considering going back to school (college) later. The job that she is doing just now is something temporary in her mindset. Unions keep pushing up prices to no avail and all that has to stop now. Things get done a great deal better without them.

  19. @ Jules. Be thankful that you weren’t scraping by on social assistance when Harris and his party declare war on the poor.

  20. Our reality is that the consequences of the last ten years of Liberal reign will continue for decades regardless of which party forms the next government.

    My sincere hope is that voter turnout tops the 50% mark so that the majority decide our immediate future and not a minority.

    Unfortunately for the largest group (boomers) today’s youth do not identify with the wake of corruption affecting all parties and recognize that previous generations have slowly eroded a once powerful and respected province within Canada. Fortunately for them opportunities exist around the globe and their futures are bright, just elsewhere. Sad though.

  21. Wynn’s aolog y for the gas plant scandal is just not sufficient and speaks volumes to her inability as a leader . When she and her party agree to actively support a criminal investigation into this situation including criminal prosecution of those who made or were involved in the decision that will prove they are taking true responsibility. In addition the Liberal party should voluntarily agree to repay the costs of this criminal act to the full value even if it takes. 29 years. Otherwise there is no justice c they cannot be believed and certainly cannot be trusted to govern. We must ensure politicians are held accountable and pay a high price when they exhibit such bad behaviour and this must include being removed from office , serving jail time and making financial restitution. When they act like spoiled brats they must be treated as such and while unfortunate we need to institutes these types of controls these Liberals and leaders like dalton Mcguinty highlight the need to control their activities and punish them when they misbehave.
    It is certainly time for change and I hope Ontario voters vote for any one but the. Liberals as they deserve to get turfed and have Not earned the right to be elected

    A very sad state of affairs in a great province. Let’s hope Thursday results in new government and we start working on improving our future without all the graft and lies of the current government.

  22. William, I doubt that anyone would run for office if they knew they’d be prosecuted under the law for any mistakes they make. Assuming you are talking about the “Gas Plant Scandal”, all three parties agreed that the location was bad, and they would halt the project. As far as the OPP investigation goes, no e-mails were destroyed. They are all stored on secure servers in Guelph. I agree the Libs should be tossed out for many reasons, but not that one.

  23. Is that change and hope that we can believe in like what Obama promised the American people???? LOL LOL. ROLF! Monty Python election – only believed by the dumb and dumber.

  24. Furtz, it is possible that not all parties would have bungled the whole process and have such political interference into negotiations. Even the premiers aids assured Trans Canada they would be reimbursed, great negotiations in that, just like Whynne giving money to the teachers before the negotiations started.

  25. Eric. We’ll never know how the other parties would have negotiated the deal. It looks really bad on the Libs, but it doesn’t look “criminal” at this point. As I said, the Libs deserve to be tossed out for many reasons. Sadly, the Cons cant seem to come up with a credible leader or a credible election platform.

  26. Furtz you may have said something right on this issue about either party having a minority government and holding another election the next year. It is a possibility and maybe changing leaders in all parties. It is only a game of “musical chairs” and the result will be the same or very similar. The government always wastes our money and if they didn’t have lunatics like them running things then Canada would pretty well be on easy street. You did make a good point and I do agree. Maybe some of your negatives might come true afterall.

  27. Author

    I think A Million Reasons to Dump the Liberals would’ve played better than A Million Jobs. Nobody bought that and it’s a cheesy rip off of The Million Man March….

  28. Agreed Jamie. Hudak’s fatal mistake was coming up with his BS Million Jobs platform so early in the campaign, giving everyone lots of time to poke holes in it.
    Today the polls are showing the Libs have an increasing lead. Interesting that the Dippers in third place will probably get to play kingmaker, and choose which party will actually rule the province.

  29. go Vote today…..Remember who is selling you out…..why is Jim MacDonell using a a ten year old photo?…clearly he’s aged……misleading ….from the start….

  30. @ Christopher North: maybe that’s his good side.

  31. Gee this is strange indeed. Every time that there was an election at any level my son would have been out the door so fast and then back. This time he hasn’t even budged. I am wondering if he is feeling like a lot of people saying “the hell with it all” and if he doesn’t vote then I can tell you that it would be his first. Many young people are doing the same thing who cares there are no jobs and no future. I have been reading things and my husband read things a while ago that I have been preaching in my household for the past 20 years or more and now he told me that I am right about what I was saying.

  32. Voting amongst young people is historically low. A lot of them don’t connect to politics and voting until much later in life. People avoiding to vote or returning their ballot unmarked is the same thing. And it does not help correct the mistakes of the past. Apathy does not provide solutions.

  33. I returned my ballot to the poll clerk and stated that I was declining my vote, so the poll clerk told me to write “decline” on it.
    This would have resulted in a spoiled ballot.

    I called Elections Ontario and they said that it was OK to write it on the back — this is not correct, and would have resulted in a spoiled ballot just the same.

    And to add to the joke… typing in the word decline, declining, declined etc. produces no results in the Elections Ontario search engine on their web site.

    see: R.S.O. 1990, c. E.6, s. 53

    Declined ballot

    53. An elector who has received a ballot and returns it to the deputy returning officer declining to vote, forfeits the right to vote and the deputy returning officer shall immediately write the word “declined” upon the back of the ballot and preserve it to be returned to the returning officer and shall cause an entry to be made in the poll record that the elector declined to vote.

  34. Jimbeau…..which is it? One point you said it would cause a spoled ballot. But your quoted reference says it would be a declined ballot.

  35. Only the deputy returning officer is permitted to mark the ballot declined.

    Furthermore it is not placed in the ballot box but rather put in a separate envelope for return to Elections Canada.

  36. Yes Jimbeau, but your vote does get marked “declined” and it is counted. I’m thinking the “declined” initiative was a high number in this election.

  37. Just to be clear for anyone next time around, that wants to “DECLINE” his/her vote…

    The eligible voter is not permitted to mark the ballot in any way — it must be handed back and only a Deputy Returning Officer may mark it with “DECLINED”.
    (This action is recorded, and the ballot is kept separate from other ballots.)

    Marking it otherwise simply makes it a spoiled ballot, which does not send the message of a declined vote.

  38. I wonder if Elections Ontario will release the number of “declined” and / or spoiled ballots when the final; numbers are released.

  39. Figures released by Elections Ontario show that 31,399 voters, or 0.64 per cent of all who participated, chose to formally decline their ballots. That’s up 1300% over last election.

  40. These numbers surprise you Jimbeau? I’m surprised the number isn’t much higher.

  41. I agree Hugger. Lots and lots of conservative folks couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Hudak and his asinine platform. I bet most of those declined ballots were registered by traditional Con voters.

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